The Frostivus 2024 event has taken the Dota 2 community by storm, offering players a festive update paired with an exciting Winter 2024 Treasure. While the treasure includes various sets and Immortals, what truly stands out is the coveted Compass of the Rising Gale, Windranger’s Arcana. Originally exclusive to the 2020 Battle Pass, its return has sparked both excitement and controversy.
If you’re aiming to unlock this highly sought-after Arcana, this guide will help you understand the probabilities and costs involved, as well as whether you can trade it after obtaining it.
Understanding the Winter Treasure System
The treasure system in Dota 2 is designed to reward persistence. The more chests you open, the higher your chances of receiving rare items like the Windranger Arcana. Below are the exact probabilities:
Windranger Arcana Drop Rates
- After 1 chest: 0.001%
- After 10 chests: 0.8%
- After 20 chests: 6.4%
- After 30 chests: 20.2%
- After 40 chests: 41.7%
- After 50 chests: 65.4%
- After 60 chests: 81.1%
- After 70 chests: 89.7%
- After 80 chests: 94.4%
- After 90 chests: 96.9%
- After 100 chests: 98.3%
By opening 50 chests, you’ll have a 65.4% chance of obtaining the Arcana. To nearly guarantee it (98.3%), you would need to open 100 chests. At approximately $1.30 per chest, that equates to around $130 to maximize your odds.
Is the Arcana Tradable?
If you plan to monetize the Arcana, there are a few restrictions to consider:
- Trade Unlock Date: The Arcana becomes tradable on July 1, 2025.
- Trade Condition: You can only trade or sell the Arcana as part of the Fluttering Breeze bundle. Once you open the pack to use the items, it becomes permanently untradable.
This limitation means that if you’re looking to sell it, you’ll need to hold onto the unopened bundle until the trade lock expires.
How Much Will You Spend?
To calculate your investment, consider these probabilities alongside the cost per chest. Here’s a breakdown:
- 50 Chests (~$65): ~65.4% chance
- 100 Chests (~$130): ~98.3% chance
While luck plays a factor, most players report needing at least 70–80 chests to secure the Arcana.